The World Cup Is Here: Mexico-South Africa Tonight, USA-Paraguay Friday
The biggest World Cup ever, 48 teams across the USA, Mexico, and Canada, kicks off today, and it ends in our backyard: the final is July 19 at MetLife Stadium. First up, Mexico opens against South Africa at the Estadio Azteca this afternoon (3 PM ET), the first stadium ever to host three World Cup opening matches (1970, 1986, 2026). Then the USMNT opens its home World Cup on Friday night against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Here is the betting picture for both openers from New York.
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Tonight: Mexico vs South Africa (Group A) · 3 PM ET · Estadio Azteca
| Market | Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico to win | -235 | Heavy chalk in front of 87,000 at the Azteca |
| Draw | +400 | The classic opener result; openers skew tight |
| South Africa to win | +890 | Massive upset price |
El Tri opens a home World Cup for the third time, and history says respect the occasion more than the favorite: World Cup openers are notoriously cagey, low-scoring affairs. Mexico at -235 is a fair price but a thin one for a single bet. The sharper angles: Mexico -235 belongs in a parlay rather than straight, and under-leaning totals have been the long-term profitable side in tournament openers. South Africa's compact block will aim to survive the first half hour of Azteca noise.
Friday: USA vs Paraguay (Group D) · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
| Market | Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| USA to win | -102 | Near pick'em for the host opener |
| Draw | +265 | Live in a nervy home opener |
| Paraguay to win | +350 | Organized, physical, built to frustrate |
The USMNT opens its home World Cup in front of 70,000 in Inglewood, and the market is notably cautious: -102 is barely a favorite's price. Paraguay is exactly the kind of opponent that makes opening matches ugly, deep block, time-wasting from minute one, and a set-piece threat. The case for the US is talent and the moment; the case against is that this group has consistently played tight in big home spots.
Group D: The USMNT's Path
| Team | To Win Group D |
|---|---|
| USA | +138 |
| Türkiye | +175 |
| Paraguay | +400 |
| Australia | +800 |
The US is the group favorite but barely, with Türkiye breathing down its neck at +175. That makes Friday's opener disproportionately important: three points against Paraguay and the group-winner price collapses; a draw and Türkiye becomes the favorite. Group winners get a materially softer knockout path, which matters in a 48-team field.
Best Bets for the Opening Round
- Mexico to win + USA double (≈ +160 combined): two home favorites with the crowd and the talent edge; the parlay price is where the value sits, not the singles.
- USA-Paraguay under-leaning totals: host-nation openers are historically tight. The US has scored two or more in very few competitive openers; Paraguay's whole gameplan is suffocation.
- USA to win Group D (+138): if you believe in the opener, the group price is the better multiplier than the single match at -102.
- Tournament futures: the favorites' board is led by the usual European and South American giants; with the final at MetLife on July 19, futures tickets cash a 5-week sweat that ends 10 miles from Manhattan.
Where to Bet the World Cup From New York
All nine NY-licensed sportsbooks have full World Cup boards: match markets, group winners, top scorer, and tournament futures, plus live in-play for every match. FanDuel leads the NY market on Same Game Parlay pricing for soccer and is running the largest guaranteed welcome offer in the state: "Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed" (bet $5 for 7 days, $350 in bonus bets regardless of result).
21+. NY only. New users only. T&Cs apply. 1-877-8-HOPENY.
See our full World Cup 2026 betting hub for the tournament schedule, all 48 teams, group-by-group odds, and the New York/New Jersey matches at MetLife Stadium. Compare all nine operators at our NY sportsbooks comparison.
The New York Angle
MetLife Stadium hosts eight matches this tournament, including the final on July 19, the biggest single sporting event ever staged in the New York area. Expect five weeks of nonstop World Cup action at NY books, with boosted markets around every MetLife match day. The tournament runs June 11 through July 19 across 16 host cities.
21+. NY only. Gambling problem? Call 1-877-8-HOPENY (1-877-846-7369) or text HOPENY (467369).